Rest-of-season xwOBA

Slide to any point in a hitter's season. The dark line is his season to date; the fan is where the model thinks his season xwOBA lands from here, at every upcoming plate-appearance milestone. Move the slider forward and the whole fan tightens.

real hitters conditioned on reaching the milestone

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100 PA seen

Reveal what actually happened

Projection by upcoming milestone

Milestone	Chance	If he gets there	50% range	80% range	90% range	Actual

Underlying data from Baseball Savant / MLB Advanced Media. Projections are this model's own output. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sourced from MLB. Code: github.com/bwista/xwobart.